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The Economist: Democrats have 68% chance to get Senate, 99% chance to get House

Christian Fernsby ▼ | September 23, 2020
The Economist's models give the Democrats a 68% chance to get the Senate majority and a 99% chance of holding the House.
Senate building
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The Economist launched its first prediction model for elections to the United States Senate as well as an updated version of its forecasting system for the House of Representatives.

Topics: Democrats

The Economist's House and Senate statistical election models update every day as more data becomes available, and predict how many seats in the House of Representatives and Senate each party is likely to control in the next Congress.

A total of 470 seats in the U.S. Congress are up for election (35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats), including two special elections for the U.S. Senate.

On average, it estimates they will get 51.4 of the chamber's 100 seats, though with high uncertainty: its 95% confidence interval stretches from a low of 47 Democratic-held seats to a high of 56.

The model is much more confident that the Democrats will hold the House of Representatives: its average simulation gives them 241 seats, seven more than they currently hold and 23 more than is needed for a majority.

95% of its simulations fall between 221 and 263 seats, and the Republicans get back the House in just 1% of them.