World Bank cuts developing East Asia forecastStaff writer ▼ | October 7, 2014
The World Bank has lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year and next, as China's expansion slows down and policymakers brace for tighter global monetary conditions.
Expectations Expansion in China slows down
China will expand 7.4 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year, compared with 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent previously forecast, according to the report.
Significant uncertainties remain that could affect the region's growth, including downside risks in the eurozone and Japan, a sharp tightening in global financial conditions and international and regional geopolitical tensions, the World Bank said.
Growth in the region excluding China is expected to accelerate to 5.3 percent in 2015 from 4.8 percent this year as a gradual recovery in high-income economies boosts demand for its exports, and domestic economic reforms advance in the large Southeast Asian economies, the World Bank said.
It raised its forecast for Malaysia's 2014 growth to 5.7 percent from 4.9 percent in April because of robust exports in the first half, it said. The surge in shipments helped growth in the economy unexpectedly accelerate to the fastest pace in six quarters in the three months through June from a year earlier.
China's growth is expected to slow as the government implements policies to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, the World Bank said.
As it seeks to strike a balance between containing risks and meeting growth targets, structural reforms in sectors previously reserved for state enterprises and services could help offset the impact of measures to contain local government debt and curb shadow banking, the report said.
Protests in Hong Kong will probably slow growth there this year but haven't so far had a significant impact on China's economy.
The World Bank also cut its forecasts for Thailand's growth this year to 1.5 percent from an earlier estimate of 3 percent. The country's junta, which seized power about four months ago in a coup, has said it will stop buying farm products directly from growers as state purchases spur overproduction, distort the market and create stockpiles.
The country needs to pursue further fiscal reforms following the scrapping of the rice-pledging scheme and proposals including the revision of property income taxes warrant serious consideration by the new government, the World Bank said.
The global economy is showing signs of recovery, albeit at an uneven pace, while significant uncertainties remain regarding the strength and sustainability of the recovery in high-income economies and about the timing of policy actions by central banks in these countries, the World Bank said.
The world's growth is forecast to be 2.6 percent growth in 2014, and an average of 3.3 percent from 2015 to 2017, it said. ■