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U.S. online sales to top $1 trillion by 2027

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Staff Writer | October 18, 2017
FTI Consulting released its 2017 U.S. Online Retail Forecast.
online sales
Retail   A compounded annual growth rate of 9 percent
It projects U.S. online retail sales will surpass $1 trillion in 2027, compared to the expected $445 billion in 2017, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 9 percent over the next decade.

U.S. online retail sales grew by 15.5 percent year-over-year (“YOY”) through the second quarter of 2017, extending online sales growth from 2016, which reached 14.9 percent YOY, according to research from FTI Consulting’s Retail & Consumer Productspractice.

The online channel now accounts for 12.2 percent of total U.S. retail sales, excluding auto and gas, a number that is expected to reach 22 percent by 2027.

Furthermore, FTI Consulting expects Amazon.com will account for more than half of U.S. online sales by 2027, compared to the current share of 34.2 percent, as noted in a recently published report, Is Amazon Invincible? Store-Based Retailers at Tipping Point.

The online channel accounted for nearly 50 percent of total retail sales growth in the past year.

With most Americans already shopping online, FTI Consulting expects future growth in online shopping will come from shoppers using the medium to purchase more frequently and across more product categories than they do currently.

Grocery is one sector that continues to challenge online retailers seeking to expand market share.

Current online market penetration is less than 2 percent, despite grocery and home meal solutions being a $750 billion category.

As a result, FTI Consulting’s forecast projects grocery’s online market share may only reach the mid- to high single-digits.

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