OPEC expects global energy demand to increase almost 50%Staff writer ▼ | December 21, 2015
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50% in the period to 2040.
Energy The overall energy mix is expected to be led by fossil fuels
Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020. Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040. Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040.
Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d. OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year’s predictions.
The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars). It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the reference case scenario.
At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost $10 trillion, in 2014 prices. ■