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OPEC expects global energy demand to increase almost 50%

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Staff writer ▼ | December 21, 2015
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50% in the period to 2040.
Energy   The overall energy mix is expected to be led by fossil fuels
The overall energy mix is expected to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78%. Combined, oil and gas are expected to supply around 53% of the global energy demand by 2040.

Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020. Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040. Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040.

Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d. OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year’s predictions.

The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than $70/b in 2020 to $95/b by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars). It is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the reference case scenario.

At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost $10 trillion, in 2014 prices.