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India to re-emerge as UAE's top export destination

Staff writer ▼ | September 18, 2014
Despite recent declines in trade between the two countries, India is predicted to re-emerge as the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) top export destination by 2030, the latest HSBC Trade Forecast Reports states.
India middle class
By 2030   HSBC predicts good period for India
"The US and UAE are currently India's two top export destinations. Better economic prospects in the US will help to boost exports in the medium-term, while Indian exports to the UAE will grow rapidly due to the country's role as a trading hub. Our forecast suggests that by 2030, the US is likely to slip into third position, with UAE and China emerging as India's main export markets," the HSBC's India Trade Forecast Report stated.

According to the report, petroleum products are projected to account for the largest part of UAE's trade comprising 40 percent of total export growth with its top buyers, India and China by 2030. India's rising middle-class are expected to create a larger demand for consumer goods from abroad, strengthening ties with its links to major oil producer, UAE.

According to the Trade Confidence Index (TCI), a survey of importers and traders from the small and medium enterprises (SME) featured in the HSBC Trade Forecast report, the UAE strongly believes in an increase of trade activity over the next six months with some 47 per cent of respondents deeming trade to increase "slightly" over the next six months, and another 16 percent believing the increase in trade volumes will be "significant."

The UAE, ranked third out of 23 countries in the study, will boost trade as a result of an increase in global and key market demand, according to 45 percent of those surveyed.

India's two-way trade with the UAE suffered its biggest percentage drop, a sharp 21 per cent decline in the 2013-2014 financial year compared to the previous year following the Indian government's move to raise gold import duty to 10 per cent from two per cent.

UAE-India trade decreased by $15.8 billion to $59.6 billion from a record high of $75.4 billion in 2012-13 resulting in India losing its position as UAE's top trading partner to China and the United States.