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IMF estimates Brazil to have primary surplus in 2022

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Staff Writer | April 19, 2018
Brazil will manage to recover enough to register an annual primary budget surplus in 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
LatAm   Fiscal Monitor report
However, in October 2017 the IMF had expected Brazil would manage to register a primary surplus by 2021.

Last week, the Brazilian Government said it would propose maintaining the projection of primary deficit in the public accounts at 139 billion reals ($1.1 billion) for 2019. It also plans to propose primary deficits for the 2020 and 2021 budgets.

According to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor report, Brazil's debt will reach 87.3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, up from 84 percent in 2017. In 2019, the debt is expected to surpass 90 percent of the GDP.

The IMF also called for a vote on social security reform, saying, "By postponing the reform, stability is also postponed."

The social security reform bill, which the government considers key to getting the public deficit under control, has been shelved for now as the government doesn't want to risk submitting it to a congressional vote without guarantee that it would be approved.

The reform, brought up in 2016 and seeking to raise retirement age, is by far the most controversial of President Michel Temer's proposals, with opponents even in the ruling coalition.