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British Columbia will lead provinces in Canada with respective real GDP gains

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Christian Fernsby ▼ | July 16, 2019
British Columbia will lead provincial economic growth this year and next, says Scotiabank Economics in its Q3 Provincial Economic Outlook.
British Columbia
Canadian economy   Pipelines: transportation capacity issues remain in place
The report was released on the heels of Scotiabank Economics' overall Q3 Global Economic Outlook titled, "The Perils of Trumponomics".[break]

"With continued strength in job creation and major project activity in 2019 and 2020, British Columbia will lead the provinces with respective real GDP gains of 2.2% and 3.0%," said Marc Desormeaux, Provincial Economist at Scotiabank.

"Quebec and PEI round out the top three this year; 2019 forecasts have been marked down for Alberta and Ontario, but both provinces should show stronger growth in 2020."

Highlights of Scotiabank's Provincial Outlook include:

Pipelines: transportation capacity issues remain in place and are behind downward revisions to the forecast in the western Canadian oil patch.

Government Policy: provincial governments continue to take different approaches to economic management, as demonstrated by new plans and details of previously announced policy.

Housing: housing markets dragged on growth in Ontario and BC to begin 2019, but are set to align more closely with economic fundamentals across the country.

International Trade: diplomatic tensions with China present significant downside risks for growth in several jurisdictions, and add to an already uncertain trade outlook.

Population Growth: above-trend population gains have continued across much of the country, and compositional shifts are key to forecast changes across a number of provinces.