British Columbia will lead provinces in Canada with respective real GDP gainsChristian Fernsby ▼ | July 16, 2019
British Columbia will lead provincial economic growth this year and next, says Scotiabank Economics in its Q3 Provincial Economic Outlook.
Canadian economy Pipelines: transportation capacity issues remain in place
"With continued strength in job creation and major project activity in 2019 and 2020, British Columbia will lead the provinces with respective real GDP gains of 2.2% and 3.0%," said Marc Desormeaux, Provincial Economist at Scotiabank.
"Quebec and PEI round out the top three this year; 2019 forecasts have been marked down for Alberta and Ontario, but both provinces should show stronger growth in 2020."
Highlights of Scotiabank's Provincial Outlook include:
Pipelines: transportation capacity issues remain in place and are behind downward revisions to the forecast in the western Canadian oil patch.
Government Policy: provincial governments continue to take different approaches to economic management, as demonstrated by new plans and details of previously announced policy.
Housing: housing markets dragged on growth in Ontario and BC to begin 2019, but are set to align more closely with economic fundamentals across the country.
International Trade: diplomatic tensions with China present significant downside risks for growth in several jurisdictions, and add to an already uncertain trade outlook.
Population Growth: above-trend population gains have continued across much of the country, and compositional shifts are key to forecast changes across a number of provinces. ■