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Brazilian banks revise down inflation forecast

Staff Writer | December 13, 2016
The financial market is expecting the inflation rate to be close to the upper limit of this year’s target range.
Brazil   According to the Brazilian Central Bank:
According to a weekly survey conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC), the forecast for the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was revised down from 6.69% to 6.52%.

The upper limit of the inflation target range is 6.50% with the center set at 4.5%. This is the fifth consecutive time that the forecast is revised down.

For 2017, the inflation rate was revised down from 4.93% to 4.90%, according to the survey, which is made public every Monday in Brasília. The inflation target for next year is 4.5%, with an upper limit of 6%.

For the financial institutions, Selic, the benchmark interest rate, will end 2017 at 10.50% per year. Currently, the Selic is at 13.75% per year.

The forecast by financial institutions for the economy’s decline worsened, going from 3.43% to 3.48%. For 2017, the growth estimate was revised down from 0.80% to 0.70% for the eighth consecutive time.

On the other hand, a Datafolha survey shows that, despite the pessimism regarding the economy, the number of Brazilians who believe the country is a good place to live has risen.

The study was held on December 7 and 8 and shows that 61% of those interviewed consider Brazil a good or very good place to live. In July, 53% gave the same answer.

Twenty-three percent of those interviewed this month see Brazil as regular, in comparison with 27% in the previous survey, and 16% said Brazil is bad or very bad, in comparison with 20% in July. In the most recent survey, 1% did not have an answer.

The feeling of pride to be Brazilian also increased: 69% of those interviewed said they are more proud than ashamed of their nationality. Twenty-eight percent said the opposite, 2% did not have an answer and 1% gave other answers.

The people's expectations on economic indicators and the evaluation of Brazil as a place to live and the feeling of pride to be Brazilian are used to calculate the Datafolha Confidence Index, which has fallen from 98 points in July to 87.

Datafolha interviewed 2,828 people over the age of 16 on December 7 and 8. The survey has a margin of error of two percent considering a confidence level of 95%.