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BofAML expects China's 3Q GDP growth 6.6%

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Staff Writer | October 5, 2018
China import
Asia   Industrial sector growth likely moderated

China is scheduled to report its 3Q GDP data on 19 October.

BofA Merrill Lynch expects 3Q real GDP growth to tick down to 6.6% yoy from 6.7% in 2Q.[break]


Industrial sector growth likely moderated, while weaker momentum in the property and financial services could weigh on service sector growth in the quarter, said the research house.

BofAML expects Industrial Production (IP) growth to ease to 5.9% yoy in September from 6.1% in August, partly due to unfavorable calendar effects (one fewer working days in September compared to 12 months ago).

The headline year-to-date Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth likely remained stable at 5.3% yoy in September, as it expects single-month FAI growth to rise to 5% yoy in September from 4.1% in August.

It expects nominal retail sales growth to step up to 9.2% yoy in September from 9% in August.

The Mid-Autumn Festival and likely higher inflation could help support sales growth of catering and some consumer goods in the month.

BofAML expects September export and import growth have likely eased to 7.6% and 14.4% yoy (in USD terms) respectively from 9.8% and 20% in August.

The implied trade surplus is US$17.9bn in September.


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