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World wheat output to fall for first time in four years

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Staff writer ▼ | January 25, 2016
Global wheat production will fall in 2016-17 for the first time in four years but not by enough to drag world inventories of the grain far below this season’s record high, the International Grains Council (IGC) said.
Wheat production
Food production   The International Grains Council:
The IGC, in its first forecast for world wheat production next season, pegged it at 706m tonnes, a three-year low, and down 25m tonnes year on year, but still a historically high level.

“While conditions for 2016-17 winter wheat have not been entirely ideal in some regions, global harvest prospects remain mostly favourable. With only a small drop in all wheat area and average yields predicted, world production is tentatively projected 3% down year on year.”

Although the drop in output, fostered by poor autumn sowings condition in Ukraine, will facilitate some reduction in world wheat stocks from the record high of 213m tonnes expected at the close of this season, the decline may only be modest.

“Because of lower anticipated feed demand, a marginal decline in consumption is expected. Some contraction is possible in end-2016-17 stocks, but inventories could still be the second highest ever.”