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USDA report: Global wheat stocks remain high

Staff writer ▼ | June 13, 2016
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) by the USDA show global wheat stocks still at a high although relatively unchanged over the previous month.
Global wheat stocks
Crops   World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Global course grain stocks are predicted to fall slightly along with global oilseed stocks.

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 3.9 million tons with production increases for the EU, Russia, and the United States more than offsetting reductions for Brazil and Mexico.

The EU production increase is entirely for Spain and reflects favourable growing conditions as confirmed with satellite imagery data. The production forecast for France is unchanged despite heavy rain for the month of May.

Although abundant precipitation can reduce yield prospects in low-lying areas, it may increase yield elsewhere.

French wheat was in excellent condition prior to the onset of the rain and expectations for a return to dryness in the latter part of the grain filling stage is anticipated to further mitigate crop losses. Production in Russia is increased on updated government estimates showing larger spring wheat area.

Foreign exports for 2016/17 are up 1.0 million tons with the EU and Russia each up 0.5 million tons given their increased production. The primary global import changes are a 1.0- million-ton increase for India on low international prices increasing demand, and a 0.4- million-ton increase for Indonesia.

Total world consumption is up 3.4 million tons led by a 1.2-million-ton increase for India food use, a 1.0-million-ton increase for EU feed use, and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Indonesia feed use.

For the EU, the late season rain in major producing regions is expected to reduce wheat quality and increase feeding. Global ending stocks are raised fractionally and remain record large.

Global 2016/17 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.1 million tons with larger corn and barley feeding for Iran and greater barley feeding for the EU and Saudi Arabia. Reductions in 2015/16 and 2016/17 Brazil corn exports are offset by higher exports for the United States and reduced imports for the EU and Mexico.

Global corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the reduction for the United States more than offsets higher foreign stocks. At the projected 205.1 million tons, world corn stocks are expected to decline slightly in 2016/17.

Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 533.9 million tons, up fractionally from last month. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Ukraine on higher planted area based on reported planting progress to date. The increase for sunflowerseed is mostly offset with reduced soybean and cottonseed production for Ukraine and China, respectively.

Changes for 2015/16 include reduced soybean production for Brazil, Uruguay, and China. The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 97.0 million reflecting the latest crop production report from the Government of Brazil. Hot, dry conditions in parts of the Center-West and northeast resulted in reduced yields.

With a lower soybean production estimate, Brazil October-September year exports and stocks are reduced for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. Higher projected U.S. exports in 2015/16 and 2016/17 partly offset the decline to Brazil trade and reduce U.S. ending stocks.

Other trade changes in 2015/16 include reduced exports for Uruguay and imports for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Ukraine 2016/17 soybean exports are also cut with a lower forecast crop.

With lower global soybean beginning stocks and production, and a negligible change to crush, global stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 66.3 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month.