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USDA cuts 2018-19 domestic corn stocks estimate, raises global forecast

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Staff Writer | February 9, 2019
The US Department of Agriculture projected that domestic corn stocks at the end of the 2018-19 marketing year would total 1.735 billion bushels (44.071 million mt), down 405 million bushels from its 2017-18 estimate of 2.140 billion bushels, and down 46 million bushels from its previous forecast for the upcoming period.
America   The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report was published
USDA's domestic corn stocks estimates for the next marketing year, which ends August 31, 2019, was within the range of analysts' expectations of 1.621 billion-2.787 billion bushels, but above the consensus average of 1.708 billion bushels, sources said.

The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE, report was published Friday instead of January 2019, due to the US government shutdown. Its previous release was on December 11, 2018.

US corn production is forecast for the period to be 14.6420 billion bushels, down 206 million bushels from last month's estimate "on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre" from 178 bushel/acre on its previous estimate, the USDA said.

The agency's feed-and-residual use forecast was cut by 125 million bushels to 5.375 billion bushels "based on a smaller crop and indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks."

The agency's latest estimate of the amount of US corn that will be used for ethanol production in the 2018-19 marketing year was 5.575 billion bushels, 25 million bushel lower than its previous estimate, and 30 million bushels lower than the prior marketing year's expected figure.

The agency's latest estimate for US corn exports in the 2018-19 marketing year was 2.450 billion bushels, unchanged from its the previous forecast, and 12 million mt above the previous marketing year's expected total of 2.438 billion bushels.

USDA's projection of the midpoint for the season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged to $3.60/bu, with a range of $3.35-$3.85/bushel.

The USDA estimated global corn ending-stocks would be 309.78 million mt at the end of the 2018-19 marketing year, down 9.1% from its 2017-18 estimate of 340.81 million mt, but up 980,000 mt from its previous estimate for the 2018-19 marketing year.