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Global wheat stocks at record high

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Staff Writer |
Turskish wheat
Food   Conditions continue to be favourable

Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are raised 2.8 million tons, primarily on higher forecast wheat production for Russia, which is up 2.0 million tons to 69.0 million.

Conditions continue to be favourable for winter wheat in most areas since the crop emerged from dormancy.

Turkey’s wheat production is also forecast higher, up 0.5 million tons to 18.0 million on improved crop conditions this spring.

India’s wheat production forecast is reduced 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million but is still record large and 9.0 million tons above 2016/17.

European Union wheat production is forecast modestly lower at 150.8 million tons on a smaller expected crop in Germany but still 4 percent above last year.

Foreign exports for 2017/18 are fractionally higher this month with increases in Argentina and Iran more than offsetting a reduction for the EU. Imports are projected higher for Brazil, Chile, and South Africa but down for Iran.

Total world consumption is marginally lower, as a 1.0-million-ton reduction in India is only partially offset by increases in Russia, Brazil, and Chile.

Global ending stocks are projected at a record 261.2 million tons, up 2.9 million from last month.

The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and stocks compared to last month.

Higher cottonseed and sunflower seed production is partly offset by lower rapeseed. Sunflower seed production is raised for Ukraine on higher planted area based on reported planting progress to date.

EU rapeseed production is down mainly on lower projected yields in Germany where crops experienced dry and sub-freezing conditions through key flowering stages.

Global oilseed production changes for 2016/17 include higher soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and higher peanut production in India.

Global soybean production is raised 3.3 million tons to 351.3 million. The Brazil soybean crop is projected up 2.4 million tons to 114.0 million reflecting increased yields in more recently harvested areas, particularly Rio Grande do Sul.

With higher global production in 2016/17, the beginning stocks for 2017/18 are raised 3.1 million tons to 93.2 million.

The larger beginning stocks combined with a 0.5- million-ton reduction to Argentina soybean exports in 2017/18 results in a 3.4-million-ton increase to 92.2 million to global soybean stocks at the end of the 2017/18 marketing year.


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