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Global grain and oilseed stocks lowered

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Staff Writer | February 15, 2017
Oilseed
Farming   Global wheat supplies

Global wheat supplies are lowered 4.2 million tons primarily due to sharp reductions in the India and Kazakhstan crops.

Indian production is lowered 3 million tons to 87 million, which is well below the latest government of India estimate.

The Kazakhstan crop is reduced 1.5 million tons on updated government statistics. Foreign exports are lowered 0.4 million tons with reductions for Kazakhstan and Russia more than offsetting increases for Argentina and Ukraine.

Total global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.5 million tons with higher feed and residual use partially offset by a decline in food use.

Vietnam and China feed and residual use is raised 1.3 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively.

With global supplies falling and total use increasing, world ending stocks are lowered 4.7 million tons this month. However, ending stocks remain 30MT higher than in 2014/15.

The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month.

Oilseed production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 554.2 million, with lower soybean production only partly offset by higher sunflower seed, rapeseed, and cottonseed.

Global soybean production is down 1.2 million tons to 336.6 million mainly on a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina where heavy rain impacted the expected harvested area.

Partially offsetting is a 0.3-million- ton increase for Ukraine on higher yields.

Global soybean crush is raised 0.4 million tons to 290.7 million, largely driven by the most recent crush data for Argentina.

Global sunflower seed production is raised 0.5 million tons to 44.8 million on increases for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the EU.

Global oilseed trade is projected up 0.7 million tons to 161 million tons. Increased exports of soybeans from Ukraine, rapeseed from Canada, and sunflower seed from Argentina account for most of the change.

Global oilseed stocks are projected lower, mostly reflecting reduced soybean stocks for Argentina and reduced rapeseed stocks for Canada. Global ending stocks are projected at 1MT less than in 2014/15.


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