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Global ending stocks of wheat and oilseed rise again

Oilseed
Food demand   World agricultural supply and demand

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the USDA show a furhter increase in global ending stocks of wheat and oilseeds.


Wheat. Global production increased 2.8 million tons to 751.1 million, mainly due to larger crops in Argentina and Australia more than offsetting a slight reduction in the European Union.

Australia’s 2016/17 wheat production is raised 2.0 million tons to a record-large 35.0 million. Projected exports are increased for both Australia and Argentina on their larger supplies while Canada’s exports are reduced on a sluggish export pace.

Global imports are raised this month led by India, which was raised 1.8 million tons to 5.5 million.

This would be the largest wheat import total for India since 2006/07; India stocks have successively declined since 2012/13. Despite higher projected global use, driven by India, 2016/17 global ending stocks are increased by 1.3 million tons to 249.9 million.

Oilseed. The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.

Global oilseed supplies are raised 3.2 million tons to 646.9 million mainly on a 4-million-ton increase to the Brazilian soybean crop, which is projected at a record 108 million tons.

The crop has benefited from favourable weather with ample rainfall throughout the growing season, raising the prospects for record yields.

Also adding to oilseed supplies are increases to rapeseed production in Australia and sunflower seed in Turkey and Serbia.

Global oilseed exports are raised 1.4 million tons from last month mostly on a 1.0-million- ton increase to soybean exports. Higher soybean shipments for Brazil and Paraguay offset lower U.S. exports.

Parallel to higher exports is a 1-million-ton increase to Chinese soybean imports reaching a record 87 million tons.

Forecast global oilseed stocks are raised 2.6 million tons to 94.3 million mainly on higher soybean stocks, which are increased 2.5 million tons for Brazil, China, and the United States combined.

Production changes to oilseed products include increased meals and lower vegetable oils. Higher oilseed meal is mainly driven by increased soybean meal production for Brazil, the United States, and Thailand.

Global vegetable oil production is lowered 0.6 million tons mostly on a reduction in palm oil for Malaysia and Colombia.

 

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